Donald Trump’s win in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and the United Kingdom’s vote to withdraw from The European Union via “Brexit,” shook popular trust in polls. Because of these two significant international events, we’ve seen the same question in talks, on social networks, in discussions, and from our own family and acquaintances: “Can we still believe polls?”
One strategy to avert a repetition of the survey mistrust that accompanied the previous presidential election and Brexit is to close the gap between appearance and fact about how polls function. In most cases, the polling environment is different from the idealized setting presented in the media or books.
With that in mind, here are a few critical things concerning polls that the general people should be aware of when dealing with polls.
Each Polling Organization Conducts Polls Differently
Some organizations take surveys by telephone through human interviewers. Others present the surveys through online platforms where the responders receive opt-in panels. There are also organizations that will take polls online from respondents who are recruited through face-to-face channels.
The polling barriers have reduced
With technology, surveys are now possible. A person can enter a field and collect data in a national survey. Nonetheless, there are some issues related to the entry of noncertified pollster, which could lead to mistakes such us overrepresentation of particular groups. In such a scenario, the data may be flawed.
Huge sample sizes are often not meaningful
People often feel that a large sample size is the most representative of a particular phenomenon. In polling, a huge group of respondents could create various issues such as bias and ineffective sampling procedures.
Transparent Polls are Judged by Accuracy
A transparent poll discloses critical information related to the survey’s sponsors, data collection forms, and the locations where the participants were recruited from. In addition, they should also highlight the interview mode, the samples, and the question wording.
All in all, people should not worry about whether polls can be trusted. It’s more critical to remain realistic about the accuracy they can provide.
